Sens’ early slide sets off alarms after loss to Sabres

Photo Credit - AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Wednesday night’s game against the Buffalo Sabres may be the earliest in recent memory that the panic button has been pressed by Ottawa Senators fans. The Sens entered the season riding the goodwill of their first playoff appearance in seven years, plus late-season additions in Fabian Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens and an off-season pickup in Jordan Spence. On paper, this club looks like a safe bet to be playing in April. So why, four games in, are fans melting down?

The Senators core was already a little slow out of the gate when it was announced that captain Brady Tkachuk would miss at least four weeks following an injury he picked up during the Senators home opener against the Nashville Predators on Monday afternoon. Tkachuk flew to New York to seek a second opinion on the diagnosis and as of this afternoon it was announced he underwent surgery. Losing Tkachuk is a major blow to receive early on this season, with effects likely to be felt both off and on the ice. Although Tkachuk’s goalscoring totals have dropped in the last few seasons, his unique combination of offensive output, physicality, and leadership qualities makes him central to the Senators as a team.

Brady Tkachuk's decline in offensive production - HockeyReference.com

It is an especially difficult blow when the rest of Ottawa’s top-six forward group have yet to find their feet. Tim Stützle has 2 points, Dylan Cozens 3, Claude Giroux 2, Thomas Chabot and Fabian Zetterlund 1 apiece. The underlying numbers suggest the team is driving play, but finishing is the problem. Stützle is shooting more, yet he sits at 6.7 percent. At this stage it isn’t enough to simply look good on the ice. They need pucks to go in. The bright spot is Shane Pinto, who leads the team with 5 goals and 6 points. The concern is that he’s doing it from the third-line centre spot.

Another telling trend is that the Senators have yet to score first in any of their four games played so far in 2025-26. That’s not fatal in isolation, but it stings when you remember the Sens went 28-6-2 last season when scoring first. An early lead would go a long way right now.

The most glaring issue so far, however, has been in the crease. Ottawa owns a league-worst 5.50 goals against per game. Linus Ullmark hasn’t provided the lift the team needs, with the Nashville game standing as his lone appearance with a save percentage above .900. Leevi Meriläinen was shelled by the Sabres for seven goals. Against Tampa and Florida, Ullmark looked unrefined. At his best, he is compact and economical, using his frame to turn pucks aside with ease. Furthermore, the Ullmark is at his best when he gets shots early, settling into a rhythm with easy glove saves or swallowing pucks with his body. The Senators need more from their goaltenders, and Ullmark has to be one of the drivers who pulls this group back into the win column. Without their captain, the hill gets steep in a hurry.

Maybe the biggest red flag is this: the Senators have held a lead for a combined 2:48 this season. This roster should be able to score in bunches. It hasn’t. Is that coaching? Confidence? Both? Whatever the cause, Ottawa has to treat the upcoming date with the Seattle Kraken like a line in the sand. Fall too far behind in October and the playoff math gets ugly by December.

For what it’s worth, this still looks like a good team that is a little broken right now. Only a collective reset will break the funk. Otherwise, you risk drifting toward the lottery without a pick to show for it.