As Senstennial co-host Benet has said time and time again, “sometimes you have to kill your darlings.” As an Anton Forsberg apologist, it’s time for me to do just that. Forsberg hasn’t held up his end of the bargain this season or the last. On Sunday, Forsberg surrendered three goals on 12 shots in a very winnable game for the Senators. Despite not being completely at fault for all three goals against, Forsberg has lost any of the goodwill he has had from his 2021-22 season where he registered a .917sv%.
This season, ‘Forsy’ has a 4-6-0 record, with a .889sv%, 2.95 GAA, and 2 shutouts. He also owns -1.9 goals saved above expected, which is good for 53rd of 81 NHL goalies this season according to MoneyPuck. Goals saved above expected is one of the key advanced statistics used to analyze goaltender performances. It is derived by taking the expected goals against (28.08), based on the number of high danger chances a goalie faces, and subtracting the actual goals against total (30). Being above the expected goals against as a goaltender isn’t good. In this case, it corroborates what Senators fans are seeing during games: that Forsberg is letting in soft goals.
And yet, the two shutouts Forsberg has earned this season are worth mentioning. In an October 22nd win on the road in Utah, Forsberg’s 31 saves kept the team in the game. Two games later, at home against Seattle, Forsberg made 22 saves in a comfortable Sens win where the team did a good job of limiting high danger chances. These performances show that the ability is still there for Forsberg; his problem is consistency. Forsberg is best when he gets shots early and often, starting with low danger chances and ramping up as the game goes by. However, with Ullmark finding his form again, Forsberg isn’t going to be put into situations where he’s under siege as often. His backup role requires him to make the easy saves and earn the easy wins.
Forsberg isn’t the biggest problem for this team; the Sens have trouble finishing on their offensive chances, closing out games, and have the 25th-ranked penalty kill. Unfortunately, Forsberg hasn’t been a bright spot either, starting 11 games and providing the Senators with only three quality starts, two of those being shutouts as mentioned earlier. For those who are curious, a quality start is defined as the following by sports-reference.com:
Your backup goalie is expected to provide you quality starts against lesser teams, and Forsberg hasn’t done that. Does context matter here? Maybe. Forsberg had double knee injuries which ended his 2022 season, and perhaps he’ll never be the same. If that’s the case, the Sens need to find someone who can give you quality starts, so we’ll save them the trouble and suggest a few who can:
Alex Lyon
Sure, they’re the Red Wings, but they have a plethora of goaltenders available and it always seems like Lyon provides the team quality starts when he plays. Lyon currently has a .911sv% in 9 games with four wins and four quality starts. The last two seasons he has provided extreme value to his teams, even bringing Florida back into a playoff spot in 2022-23. His trade value wouldn’t be extremely high and would help Ullmark steady the goaltending tandem for Ottawa. Lyon is an interesting goalie from a technical perspective, he is very raw and reactionary; you won’t think he’s got a section of the net covered but suddenly he’s there.
Dan Vladar
The backup to Dustin Wolf in Calgary has been a serviceable goalie for Calgary the past few seasons and this season Vladar currently has a .900sv% with 14 games played. Of those 14 games played, nine are quality starts, and he gives Calgary a chance to win every game he plays. While Calgary is just outside the playoff picture right now, they’ve cooled off since their hot start to the season and could be a team looking for future assets if they continue to descend in the standings. Selling off a backup goaltender would be in their best interest if they want to gain an asset or two and maybe look ahead to next season. Vladar is a very technical goalie, his movements are crisp and direct, and despite being 6 '5 he moves like a smaller and nimbler goaltender.
Arturs Silovs
Going into this season, it seemed like Silovs had the backup position in Vancouver locked up. However, Kevin Lankinen usurped that role and with Thatcher Demko's return there isn’t much room for Silovs. Silovs has struggled this year, there’s no sugarcoating that; his goaltending stats are worse than Forsberg’s. However, if you look at his performance in last season’s playoffs, it’s clear that Silovs is capable of elevating his play. That would be the Silovs you’re aiming to trade for. His movements are direct and explosive, and he plays a big blocking style that vacuums up pucks.
Kappo Kahkonen
Another example of a goalie whose NHL position has been in question this season. Going from Winnipeg to Colorado and back, Kahkonen hasn’t had much NHL playing time this season and when he has played, the expectation was he would right Colorado’s sinking goaltending ship. The Senators don’t need a savior; they need him to play like he did last season in San Jose and New Jersey. Kahkonen is a big goalie who relies on his size and athleticism to make stops.
For the Sens, finding a fix internally for their goaltending issues may not be an option. Mads Sogaard is currently injured, and his play doesn’t give us any positivity about a real path to the NHL for the 6 '8 Dane. However, Leevi Merilainen has been playing quite well for the Belleville Senators with a .910sv% and a 6-1-4 record. Rushing Merilainen into the NHL as a starter was never an option, but his play has been much more consistent in the AHL and could warrant a call-up.
In any trade for a backup, Forsberg needs to be going the other way for both roster and cap flexibility. He is currently in the last year of a three-year deal with a salary cap hit of $2.75M. He may just need a change of scenery to thrive. For the Senators, the goodwill appears to be gone. The confidence when he is in net has seemingly evaporated. The Senators have several places they need to upgrade this season - it’s disappointing to see that goaltending is still one of them.
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