"The Ottawa Senators and meeting fan expectations, an unsuccessful duo since the 2017 playoffs".
The 2024-25 iteration of the Ottawa Senators was deemed as having the highest chance of playoff promise in several years. With that promise comes the aforementioned fan expectations. Sens fans expected the team to improve. They hoped for, or maybe even expected, this roster to make the playoffs. However, it’s 20 games into the season, and the Senators are already slumping. Five losses in a row, including humbling defeats to the Vegas Golden Knights and the Vancouver Canucks, have left the Sens adrift. How did this team, one in which Elliotte Friedman, fellow podcaster and hockey analyst, as well as other hockey media members deemed to be making the playoffs in April, get to this point?
Looking at the team’s recent losses reveals an unflattering pattern. While the Senators play well on paper, generating plenty of shots and doing a good job of limiting shots by their opponents, they are unable to capitalize on the opportunities they create. Worse, defensive breakdowns and relatively poor goaltending are sinking the team in spite of a much improved even-strength Corsi % (currently sixth in the league at 53.7%). The Senators are losing game after game, generally outshooting their opponents. But they’re failing to take the lead when they have the chance and ultimately folding once they give up a goal or two.
The Senators sit 6th in the league for even-strength Corsi %, even if results have failed to improve.
Credit: MoneyPuck (November 25, 2024)
If this sounds familiar to Senators fans, it’s because it is. After the 3-2 loss to Vegas, Travis Green stated that there was “a little bit of carryover from years past. ‘Here we go again around here’... [don’t] worry about the past. Control what’s ahead of you.” None of that is wrong, but the Senators currently look like a team that shrinks the instant that they face hardship. Few of the team’s players are playing in a way that suggests otherwise.
As a result of their on-ice performance, Ottawa’s leadership group has faced increased criticism over the past few games. While Senators fans have been critical of team captain Brady Tkachuk, the problems are clearly deeper than that. Since being named captain in 2021, Brady hasn’t been able to drag his team into the hunt for the playoffs. But, that’s not a blame that he should carry single handedly. It’s hard to make the playoffs when the core of your team seemingly lacks mental fortitude, which is apparent in the team’s demeanor. Even casual fans will note that lapses in concentration tend to follow periods of high-intensity, especially powerplays and penalty kills. In their game against Vancouver on Nov. 23rd, the Sens conceded goals immediately after failing to score on a five-minute major against Canucks defender Quinn Hughes. They also gave up goals once again after having successfully killed off a Vancouver powerplay. The Senators consistently take their foot off the gas at the worst times and are consistently punished for it. Instead of bouncing back after conceding, the team tends to look visibly rattled and deflated. The NHL hosts the best and fastest sport on the planet. There isn’t time to stop and reset. Every move needs to be made in a split second, but it feels like the Sens haven’t figured out how to do that yet. There have been a number of people on social media calling for the team to hire a full-time sports psychologist. If the Sens haven’t hired one already, it certainly would be a good idea to pursue hiring someone who can fill that role.
Statistically, the Senators are underperforming in their expected results in almost every area. According to MoneyPuck, Ottawa’s expected goals differential is a respectable 3.5, but their actual differential is -11. Goaltender Linus Ullmark, acquired from the Boston Bruins in the offseason, is near the bottom of the league in goals saved above expected (-5.7). However, Ullmark is far from the only player underperforming.
Ottawa’s forwards have been a mixed bag this season. Tkachuk has had strong individual performances at times, but looked pedestrian at others. Sometimes he can go missing at key moments in games. Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, and Josh Norris have been good, but you always feel as though they have another step to their respective games that they aren’t quite reaching. David Perron, Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Grieg have all looked decent at times but aren’t producing on the scoresheet, combining for a total of five goals through 20 games played. Only Tim Stützle has been a consistent producer, scoring nine goals and 24 points in a resurgent season for the team’s German superstar. Zack MacEwen, who found the back of the net twice against the Los Angeles Kings a couple of weeks ago, was waived by the team on Sunday. According to MoneyPuck, Ottawa has the third lowest shooting percentage in the league at 6.9%, but fourth highest even strength expected goals at 54.6%, indicating that the Sens are failing to bury their chances.
The Senators sit 3rd last in the league in shooting percentage, but 4th in the league when it comes to expected goal percentage at even strength. Credit: MoneyPuck (November 25, 2024)
On defense, Thomas Chabot has appeared to be the best Sens defenceman this year. That likely has a lot to do with a stable partner in Nick Jensen. Sanderson’s brief stint with Travis Hamonic may have created more issues with Sanderson’s game. As well, Artem Zub hasn’t looked great either since returning from his concussion and will now be out long-term with a broken foot. Ottawa’s third pairing should be a rotating placement; Tyler Kleven, Hamonic, and Jacob Bernard-Docker should not be playing two games in a row unless they’ve played well enough to earn that spot. With Sanderson not being at the top of his game right now, Ottawa’s defence is being exposed. A single top-pairing defenceman can’t cut it every night. The Sens are seeing the negative results stemming from that issue. Sanderson needs to improve quickly if Ottawa wants to right the ship this season. Sanderson started the season with people suggesting that he be in the Norris Trophy conversation, and rightfully so. He had been excellent early-on. Unfortunately, that has disappeared as his point totals stagnated around the 10-game mark, and he was re-paired with Hamonic as his partner.
There may yet be a return to the improved play that the Senators showed between late October to early November. If they continue to consistently outshoot their opponents, the forwards are likely going to find the back of the net. Ullmark and backup Anton Forsberg have the ability to be a solid tandem. Many Sens fans would likely bet that the former Vezina Trophy winner will find his game again. However, patience is running out, if it’s not already gone, especially for a team that is staring down eight straight seasons without a playoff appearance. The time for mediocrity has passed - it’s time for Ottawa to put their money where their mouth is, stick to their “heart over hype” motto, and win some hockey games.
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