Where will the goals come from?

he Ottawa Senators after last year’s first-round exit to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Credit: Andre Ringuette, Getty Images

The Ottawa Senators are having a hard time scoring goals. This statement could apply to just about any Senators team this past decade, but it feels especially pertinent thus far in 2025-26.

On the surface, the Senators are doing…fine. The team is still above .500 after collecting a point each in the OT losses to both Montreal (November 1) and Boston (November 6). The team is averaging 3.43 GF/GP, placing them just inside the top ten across the NHL. The powerplay is still clicking, operating at a 26.00% clip. All this without captain Brady Tkachuk. Yet Senators fans are right to feel unsatisfied with what they’ve seen offensively from their team so far. 

There is a time for statistics, and a time for the eye test. Right now the Senators might be scoring enough goals to place them comfortably in the top third of the league. But to anyone watching the games, it sure doesn’t feel that way. What you see during a game is player after player being reluctant to shoot, passing sequences that go on far too long, and a lot of marginal, low-danger shots on net. Enough bounces are going the team’s way for the moment, but just barely. The Senators look like they are one rut of bad results away from the wheels falling off entirely. 

Goaltending has been a problem for the Senators all season long, which is certainly part of the story. Linus Ullmark leads the league in goals against (41) and is dead last in goals saved above expected (-8.2) per MoneyPuck. Backup goaltender Leevi Merilainen is not far behind Ullmark in the latter category, either. Yet, it’s still early. Both goaltenders had solid regular seasons last year and it would not be a surprise if the team’s goaltending evened out over the coming weeks and months. The team’s lack of a killer instinct in front of goal is not a new problem, however. It’s systemic. 

In recent years, Brady Tkachuk is the only Senators player who has consistently bagged 30 goals or greater per season. He has done so three times: 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24. Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux, and Josh Norris each managed to do so once apiece. And, that’s it. Not just recently, but in over a decade. Outside of these four players, the last Senators to score 30 goals in a season were Milan Michálek (35) and Jason Spezza (34) in 2011-12. If you were wondering, the next best player on that team was Daniel Alfredsson (27), who has since had time to retire, un-retire, enter the Hockey Hall of Fame, and take up a role behind the bench with the team.  

Ottawa Senators 30-goal Seasons since 2012-13

Player	Goals	Season
Tim Stützle	39	2022-23
Brady Tkachuk	37	2023-24
Brady Tkachuk	35	2022-23
Josh Norris	35	2021-22
Claude Giroux	35	2022-23
Brady Tkachuk	30	2021-22

The reasons for this long-term, organizational failure to draft, develop, or otherwise acquire legitimate goalscorers are myriad. In a previous episode we did a deep dive into Senators draft classes since the start of the present rebuild, noting the many wasted opportunities to draft game-changing talent and the many times that the team spent high draft picks on player trades that didn’t pan out. This was certainly the case with the move for Alex DeBrincat, although this was at least a recognition by the time of a need for that sort of player. Someone who can be the trigger-man on a powerplay, whose first instinct is to shoot instead of pass. For three months in 2022, Norris was that player. Since then, the absence of an elite scoring winger on the team has been glaring. 

Obviously, these sorts of players don’t grow on trees. At various points the team has tried to acquire such a player, like with DeBrincat or Bobby Ryan before him. None have managed to move the needle. Homegrown talents like Mike Hoffman came close, but fell short of establishing themselves as everyday scoring threats. The current roster, outside of Tkachuk, has shown flashes of offensive firepower but none have managed to establish themselves as consistent goalscorers. Drake Batherson is a much more well-rounded player than Hoffman ever was, but is still streaky and inconsistent. Stützle has the ability to beat goaltenders from anywhere, but his instinct is clearly to pass rather than shoot. It doesn’t appear that there is anyone in the team’s prospect pipeline that fits this archetype, either. Whatever the means, this is a glaring need that the team has consistently failed to address for over a decade.  

None of this helps the Senators right now. Their record isn't terrible, but neither does it inspire confidence. The return of Tkachuk in late November or early December should give the team a boost. But his absence has exposed some of the persistent holes in the roster. Where is the depth on the wing? Where is the grit and heart that this team claims to care so much about?

And, who is going to score the goals?

There is talent on this roster - fans have seen that time and again. But is it the right mix of talents, in the right positions? These are the things that keep fans up at night. General Manager Steve Staios would do well to take note.